Baloney Detection

Let’s recite Michael Shermer’s mantra on Baloney Detection:

  • When someone provides a new explanation for something, does it account for as many phenomena as the old explanation did?
  • Do the new claims provide an explanation for the observed phenomena, or do they merely deny the existing explanation?
  • Does the new explanation use the accepted rules of reason and tools of research, or have these been abandoned in favor of others that lead to the desired conclusion?
  • Has anyone disproved the claims, or has only supportive evidence been sought?
  • Does the overwhelming evidence point to the conclusions reached by the new explanation, or to a different one?
  • How do these claims fit in with what we know of how the world works?
  • Does the person making this statement often make similar claims?
  • Have the claims been verified by an independent source?
  • How reliable is the person making the claims?
  • Do their personal beliefs and biases drive the conclusions, or vice versa?
 

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